Econometric ridge regression models of risk-sensitive sunflower yield / Modelos economométricos de regressão de rendimento de girassol sensível ao risco

The article considers econometric ridge regression models of the risk-sensitive sunflower yield on the example of an export-oriented agricultural crop. In particular, we have proved that despite the functional mulcollinearity of the predictors in the sunflower yield model with respect to risk caused by the algorithm peculiarities of the hierarchy analysis methods, the ridge regression procedure makes it possible to obtain its complete specification and provide biased but stable estimates of the forecast parameters in the case of uncertain input variables. It has been substantiated that the rational value of the displacement parameters is expedient to be established using a graphical interpretation of the ridge wake as the border of fast and slow fluctuations in the estimates of the ridge regression coefficients. Econometric models were calculated using SPSS Statistics, Mathcad and FAR-AREA 4.0 software. The empirical basis for forecast calculations was the assessment of trends in sunflower production in all categories of farms in the Rostov region of Russia for the period of 2008-2018. The calculation results of econometric models made it possible to develop three author's scenarios for the sunflower production in the region, namely, inertial, moderate, and optimistic ones that consider the export-oriented strategy of the agro-industrial complex.(AU)

O artigo considera modelos econométricos de regressão de rendimento de girassol sensível ao risco sobre o exemplo de uma cultura agrícola orientada para a exportação. Em particular, provamos que apesar da multicolinearidade funcional dos preditores no modelo de rendimento de girassol com relação ao risco causado pelas peculiaridades dos algoritmos dos métodos de análise hierárquica, o procedimento de regressão de cristas permite obter sua especificação completa e fornecer estimativas tendenciosas, mas estáveis dos parâmetros de previsão no caso de variáveis de entrada incertas. Foi comprovado que o valor racional dos parâmetros de deslocamento é conveniente de ser estabelecido usando uma interpretação gráfica da esteira da crista como fronteira das flutuações rápidas e lentas nas estimativas dos coeficientes de regressão da crista. Os modelos econométricos foram calculados usando o software SPSS Statistics, Mathcad e FAR-AREA 4.0. A base empírica para os cálculos de previsão foi a avaliação das tendências da produção de girassol em todas as categorias de fazendas na região de Rostov na Rússia para o período de 2008-2018. Os resultados dos cálculos dos modelos econométricos permitiram desenvolver três cenários de autor para a produção de girassol na região, a saber, os cenários inercial, moderado e otimista que consideram a estratégia orientada à exportação do complexo agroindustrial.(AU)

Productivity of steers of different genotypes: forecast based on interior indicators / [Produtividade de novilhos de diferentes genótipos: previsão com base em indicadores internos]

Meat productivity and quality of beef are determined by a number of factors, including pedigree traits of animals. Meat productivity is closely related to the biological patterns of their growth and development. Considering the patterns that affect meat productivity enables effective growing and fattening of livestock and obtaining commercially viable beef. To predict economically useful traits in beef cattle breeding, interior indicators can be used, as they reflect the metabolic picture of the animal's body. The research studies in physiology and biochemistry of livestock aimed at revealing the persistent mechanisms of a growing animal organism make them relevant. The article identifies a correlation between the interior indicators and the fattening indicators of three experimental groups of steers. The main forecasting factors of meat productivity indicators have been substantiated. Regression coefficients have been found and show how much the live weight varies depending on the determining factors. Meat productivity predicting procedures have been modeled with respect to the protein content in blood serum.(AU)

A produtividade e a qualidade da carne bovina são determinadas por diversos fatores, incluindo características de pedigree dos animais. A produtividade da carne tem relação íntima com os padrões biológicos de seu crescimento e desenvolvimento. A consideração dos padrões que afetam a produtividade da carne possibilita o crescimento e engorda eficazes dos rebanhos e a obtenção de carne bovina comercialmente viável. Para prever características economicamente úteis na criação de gado de corte, indicadores de interior podem ser usados, visto que refletem a imagem metabólica do corpo do animal. Tornam-se relevantes os estudos de pesquisa em fisiologia e bioquímica da pecuária com o objetivo de revelar os mecanismos persistentes de um organismo animal em crescimento. O artigo identifica uma correlação entre os indicadores internos e os indicadores de engorda de três grupos experimentais de novilhos. Os principais fatores de previsão dos indicadores de produtividade de carnes já foram comprovados. Coeficientes de regressão foram encontrados e mostram o quanto o peso vivo varia em função dos fatores determinantes. Os procedimentos de predição da produtividade da carne foram modelados em relação ao conteúdo de proteína no soro sanguíneo.(AU)

[Comprehensive assessment of the content of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and dependence of their accumulation in meat products].

Dependences of the quantity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) on the conditions for the formation of components of smoke compositions, the type of wood, the formulation, the technology of production, and the type of packaging material have been studied. An increase in temperature from 450 to 700 °C lead to a 2-3-fold increase in the amount of PAH in meat products. It has been established that the use of a polyamide coating reduced the total carcinogenicity of sausages by 2.0-3.7 fold compared with protein and natural shells, which in terms of PAH accumulation were the most dangerous. Fibrous shell was able to provide a reduction in PAH level in the product up to 40% compared to natural one. The permeability of the fat fraction of the product for PAH was up to 10 fold higher than that of proteins and carbohydrates. The data obtained made it possible to determine the safety criteria for smoked meat products, taking into account the potential carcinogenic hazard of each PAH. The optimal indicators of the presence of PAH in the product are 8 PAH (benz[a]pyrene, chrysene, benz[a]anthracene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[g,h,i]perylene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene, indeno[1,2,3-c,d] pyrene). The PAH exposure on the human body has been determined under the constant consumption of smoked meat products. The prospective use of barrier protection technologies, substances possessing antiradical activity, and protective films to reduce residual PAH content has been proved. The results of the studies showed a 5-fold decrease in the total amount of PAH when using films impregnated with fat-containing micro anemulsion of vegetable or animal fat. The effect increased when meat was marinateв in a 9% solution of acetic acid or 3% solution of ascorbic acid.

[Characterization of the Russian beef cattle breed gene pools using inter simple sequence repeat DNA analysis (ISSR analysis)].

The gene pools of beef cattle breeds bred in Russia were characterized on the basis of inter simple sequence repeat DNA analysis (ISSR analysis). Samples of Aberdeen Angus, Kalmyk, and Kazakh Whitehead breeds from Russia, as well as of Hereford breed, hybrids of Kazakh Whitehead and Hereford breeds, and Kazakh Whitehead breed from the Republic of Kazakhstan, were examined. In the examined breeds, 27 AG-ISSR fragments were identified, 25 of which were polymorphic. The examined breeds were different both in the fragment profiles (the presence/absence of individual ISSR fragments) and in their frequencies. It was demonstrated that the hybrid animals lacked some ISSR fragments that were present with high frequencies in parental forms, suggesting considerable genome rearrangement in the hybrid animals (at the regions of microsatellite localization) in crossings of the individuals from different breeds. The level of genetic diversity in Russian beef breeds was consistent with the values typical of farmed populations (breeds). The genetic diversity parameters assessed by applying Nei's gene diversity index and the Shannon index varied from 0.0218 to 0.0605 and from 0.0225 to 0.0819, respectively. The highest Shannon index value was detected in the Kalmyk breed (0.0837) and Kazakh Whitehead breed from Russia (0.0819), and the highest level of Nei's gene diversity index was found in the Kalmyk breed (0.0562) and in both populations of the Kazakh Whitehead breed (0.0509 and 0.0605). The high level of genetic similarity (according to Nei) was revealed between Russian beef cattle breeds and Hereford cattle: 0.839 (for the Kazakh Whitehead breed from Russia) and 0.769 (for the Kalmyk breed).

[Effect of a new low-cholesterol meat and vegetal product on correction of simulated lipid metabolism disorders in rats].

The paper presents the biomedical evaluation of meat and cereal spread from low-cholesterol raw material with vegetable ingredients, recommended as a functional food. The experimental model with myocardial infarction like changes in hearts of the animals, accompanied by vascular changes similar to atherosclerotic changes in humans, as well as the modeling of the metabolic imbalance of lipids have been carried out by intramuscular injection of epinephrine and unbalanced feeding the animals with food rich in cholesterol, with a high content of carbohydrates and fats. Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups of 12 animals each. The rats in groups 1-3 were induced the cardio distress with intramuscular injection of epinephrine; group IV consisted of intact (healthy) animals. Dramatic changes in biochemical blood status that indicated heart disease have been observed within 2 days after the injection of epinephrine (0.2 ml per 1 kg of animal body weight) to the tested animals. During the experiment a sharp increase in activity of indicator enzymes of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferases (AST), with a predominance of AST over ALT, along with an increase in LDH activity have been observed. The 1.4-1.6 fold increase in blood serum creatinine has also been found. Later the animals in groups 1, 2, 3 with simulated cardio pathology were fed a ration with intervention of food rich in cholesterol, with a high content of carbohydrates and fats (50% of the diet) for a month for induction of lipid metabolism disorders. An increase in the concentration of cholesterol and triglycerides by 3 fold or more has been observed. In addition, an accumulation of sulfhydryl groups has been noted, as evidenced by increased rates of thymol. For further normalization of lipid metabolism, the animals in tested group I were fed the diet with intervention of spread, developed in accordance with GOST 12318-91 "Canned meat "Meat spread"; the rats of group 2 were fed with spread with vegetable supplements (pumpkin by-products and alginates), and group 3 received a standard diet within the next month. The results of biochemical blood serum studies have shown that the level of cholesterol, triglycerides, creatinine and sulphydryl groups in the experimental groups 1 and 2 decreased, indicating a positive influence on lipid metabolism and prevention of peroxides formation in the organism. These changes were more pronounced when meat product with plant additives and alginate was used in the diet. Only under the application of the meat-vegetable pate cholesterol level ceased to differ from that of the control group of animals. Based on the significant reduction of blood malondialdehyde level, antioxidant properties of vegetable supplements have been proven. The experimental data showed that the spread, developed on the basis of low-cholesterol raw meat with vegetable ingredients (pumpkin by-products and alginates) can be used to correct metabolic disorders of lipids, reducing the risk of cardio pathology in the body.